SOLO MINING · PROBABILITY & VARIANCE

Mining calculator

Type your hashrate and the network hashrate. The page tells you how many blocks to expect, how likely it is you find at least one, and how wide the variance band is. No profit estimate. No fiat conversion. Solo mining is high variance and SOST is in pre-market testing.

INPUTS

Tell us your setup

From your miner log: the att/s column.
Pulled from the explorer EST. HASHRATE field.
Window for the calculation.
Miner share = 50% of subsidy + fees. Current ~7.85.
Your share
—
of total network hashrate
Expected blocks
—
in window
P(at least one)
—
probability of finding ≥ 1 block
Expected SOST
—
mean reward in window
Variance band
—
5th – 95th percentile of blocks
Median wait to first block
—
50% of solo miners wait this long or less
Variance is real. "Expected" means average over many such windows. In any single window your actual count of blocks can be 0 even when the expected value is well above 1. That is mathematically normal solo-mining behaviour.
No profit promise. SOST is in pre-market testing. There is no exchange listing, no market price, no liquidity. The "Expected SOST" number is in SOST units, not money. Do not assume any future fiat value.
DETAILS

How the numbers are computed

The math (Poisson process)

Block discovery in a PoW network is a Poisson process: every nonce is an independent trial, and over a fixed time window the number of blocks any single miner finds follows a Poisson distribution with mean λ equal to the miner's expected count.

share = my_hashrate / network_hashrate
blocks_in_window = (window_seconds / 600) × share
λ = blocks_in_window
P(≥1 block) = 1 − e−λ
P(0 blocks) = e−λ

Variance: for Poisson, both mean and variance equal λ. The 5th-95th percentile band uses the standard chi-squared / Poisson quantile approximation that is accurate for any λ.

Median wait to first block uses the exponential time-between-events: median = ln(2) / rate, where rate = share × (1 / 600 s).

Where the network hashrate number comes from

The default network hashrate (479 H/s) is a snapshot from the explorer. It changes block by block. For a current value, open the explorer and copy the EST. HASHRATE field, or the network status page.

Why "expected SOST" is not "mining income"
  • SOST has no exchange listing — the unit has no market price.
  • The block reward decays smoothly over time (Feigenbaum-derived schedule), so the figure here is current, not future.
  • Pre-market testing carries the risk that the project never reaches market value at all (see Developer Note at the top of any page).
  • Solo mining variance can stretch days. Don't budget on the mean.
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